Effects of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in South Africa across different drinker groups and wealth quintiles: a modelling study

Objectives To quantify the potential impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol on consumption, spending and health in South Africa. We provide these estimates disaggregated by different drinker groups wealth quintiles. Design developed an epidemiological policy appraisal model to estimate effects MUP across sex, (moderate, occasional binge, heavy) Stakeholder interviews workshops informed development ensured relevance. Setting African drinking population aged 15+. Participants The (aged 15+) Africa 2018 stratified group quintiles, with a time horizon 20 years. Main outcome measures Change standard drinks (SDs) (12 g ethanol) consumed, weekly spend alcohol, annual number cases deaths five alcohol-related conditions (HIV, intentional injury, road liver cirrhosis breast cancer), reported quintile. Results R10 per SD would lead immediate reduction consumption 4.40% (−0.93 SD/week) increase 18.09%. absolute is greatest heavy drinkers (−1.48 SD/week), followed binge (−0.41 moderate (−0.40 SD/week). Over years, we 585 fewer 9 00 332 averted health-modelled harms. Poorer see greater impacts from (consumption: −7.75% poorest quintile, −3.19% richest quintile). Among drinkers, 85% 86% lives saved accrue bottom three Conclusions that reduce Africa, improving outcomes while raising retail tax revenue. Consumption harm reductions be poorer groups.